Free tool · updated with the Fed decision of 28 October 2026 · next decision 9 December 2026, 19:00 UTC

Will one FOMC candle eat your daily loss?

How far price moved in the first hour after the 7 Fed decisions of 2026, what that is in dollars at your lot size, and how much of today's loss limit it would take. Real prices, no sign-up.

Your firm's exact daily rule (on balance or equity, start-of-day or initial) changes the room you have: check it in our calculators. This tool only answers: how big was the move?

–

0daily room left:
Typical first hour after the decision
Worst first hour of the 7
Worst first two hours
Size that survives the worst first hour with 50% of the room spare

The 7 Fed decisions of 2026,

High to low of the hourly candle that opens with the statement (and of the first two hours). In dollars at your current size.

DecisionFirst hourFirst 2 hoursAt your size, 1st hourShare of today's room

Lost a challenge on a news day?

The free check-up reads the trade history of a lost challenge and shows whether it was the news, the size or a rule. Free for the first 15 traders.

Get the free check-up

Keep the limit on your chart

Prop Firm Guard is a free TradingView indicator that shows today's loss room and your safe size, live, while the candle moves.

Get Prop Firm Guard

How the numbers are made

For each of the 7 FOMC decisions of 2026 (28 Jan, 18 Mar, 29 Apr, 17 Jun, 29 Jul, 16 Sep and 28 Oct) we take the hourly candle that opens with the statement (19:00 UTC in January, 18:00 UTC the other times) and measure its full range, high to low; for the two hours, the range of that candle and the next one together. It is the full range, so it is the worst case for someone on the wrong side without a stop. Numbers checked again on 30 October 2026. Source: OANDA hourly prices via TradingView. Forex in pips, gold in dollars, indices in points.

The dollar value uses the size and the value per lot you enter. For gold one lot is usually 100 ounces ($100 per $1 move); for EURUSD and GBPUSD $10 per pip; for USDJPY it depends on the rate (about $6.4 per pip at 156). For index CFDs the value per point depends on the platform: many prop firms use $1 per point per lot, some $10. Check the contract size in your platform.

Will a stop loss protect me?

A stop limits the loss when it fills at your price. In the seconds after the statement spreads widen and fills can be worse than the level you set, so the move in this table is a fair reference for the worst case.

Is this a prediction for 9 December?

No. It is what happened the seven times this year. The next decision can move less or much more. Not financial advice; RetryLab does not open or close trades.

Can I use it for NFP and CPI?

The same check matters for US jobs data (6 November) and inflation data (10 November). This page covers the Fed decision only for now.